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Game Theory Analysis

KENO

Keno

House Edge 0.10% · Rakeback up to 100% (Only at Duel)

Gamdom 0.93% to 1.35% · Rakeback up to 100% (up to 5k)

Stake / Rainbet / Shuffle 0.93% to 1.35%

Pick up to 10 numbers from a pool of 40, place your bet, and watch as 20 are drawn at random. The more of your numbers that hit, the bigger your payout. That's it.

Keno quick sim

Pick a provider, risk table, and number of picks. Results are per 1 unit wagered.

House Edge

0.10%

STD

1.390953

Max Win Multiplier

200.00x

Where to Play Keno

Best current value by provider.

Duel

0.10% edge

100% rakeback

Up to 50k daily

Gamdom

0.93% to 1.35% edge

100% rakeback

Up to 5k daily

Stake / Rainbet / Shuffle

0.93% to 1.35% edge

Flat pricing

Ranges from 0.93% to 1.35% depending on risk and picks

OVERVIEW

Keno is a fixed-structure draw game: you choose from 1 to 10 picks only, then the game draws 10 numbers.

Your payout is determined by exactly how many of your picks are hit.

SETUP

  • Choose bet size.
  • Choose number of picks (p) from 1 to 10.
  • Choose risk table (Classic, Low, Medium, High).

ROUND FLOW

  • 10 numbers are drawn from a 40-number grid.
  • Let H be the number of hits (matches) between your picks and the draw.
  • Net round result is (multiplier(H) - 1) * bet_size.

WHAT CHANGES

  • Picks and risk mode change hit distribution and payout curve.
  • The payout table defines RTP and house edge for each configuration.

HIT PROBABILITY (HYPERGEOMETRIC)

Let p be picks and h be exact hits in one round.

Ph=C(p,h) * C(40 - p, 10 - h)C(40, 10)

Where C(a,b) is combinations (a choose b).

PAYOUT MODEL

For each h from 0..p, the game table provides multiplier M_h.

Expected return (RTP) for one bet is:

RTP=SUM(Ph * Mh)

House edge is:

HouseEdge=1 - RTP

In percent form:

HouseEdgepercent=100 * (1 - RTP)

VOLATILITY / STD

EV=SUM(Ph * Xh)
Var=SUM(Ph * Xh^2) - EV2
SD=sqrt(Var)

Quick examples (Duel, 10 picks):

RiskSD (per round)
Low0.7213
Classic1.3910
High3.9723

Risk tables with larger top multipliers have higher SD and larger short-run swings.

Keno payout-table RTP proof (optional)

TEST STRATEGIES

You can test strategies here in the strategy tool.

WARNING

Strategies are methods of shaping your risk and payout profile, not ways to beat the house.

They can be used to:

  • Smooth variance and generate more frequent, smaller wins.
  • Increase variance to chase larger, less frequent payouts.

This means each wager has a negative expected value, or neutral when playing zero-edge, and changing bet sizes or betting patterns won't change that.

MARTINGALE STRATEGY

Increase bet size after losses (typically doubling) to recover all previous losses plus a fixed profit. This works extremely well until it doesn't and all of your bankroll is gone.

Bet size sequence: b, 2b, 4b, 8b, ...

Stop when a win occurs, then reset to base bet.

Martingale — Distribution Effect

  • Very high win frequency.
  • Many small profits.
  • Rare but extreme losses (one big loss can drain your bankroll).

PAROLI (INVERSE MARTINGALE)

Bet sequence after wins: b, 2b, 4b, ...

Reset to base bet after a loss.

Paroli — Distribution Effect

  • Lower win frequency.
  • Many small losses.
  • Occasional large wins.

First Casino

Live Economics

House edge: 0.100%

House Edge after Rakeback: 0.000%

STD: 1.39

Max Possible Win: 199.00x

Second Casino

Live Economics

House edge: 0.963%

House Edge after Rakeback: 0.963%

STD: 1.36

Max Possible Win: 99.00x

Shared Session

Run SnapshotDuel (Keno) vs Stake (Keno)